Power generation is currently the largest source of CO2 emissions globally with fossil fuel use such as coal and gas still featuring heavily in power mixes around the world. But the power sector also represents the greatest opportunity to reduce emissions on both the supply and demand side of the global energy system. By integrating larger shares of renewables and electrifying end-use sectors, the world can gradually transition away from fossil fuel use on the way to meeting its climate goals.
Most climate mitigation scenarios include some degree of electrification of end-use sectors, which leads to a substantial increase in the share of electricity in final energy consumption. As such, it is important to consider how electricity generation, particularly from low emissions sources, and electrification may contribute to decarbonisation goals and overall emissions reduction benefits.
Electricity grids are sensitive to a variety of factors, including:
- supply and demand shocks such as wars, pandemics and extreme weather events
- predictable variations like intra-day, monthly and seasonal weather changes
- evolving policy settings, including but not limited to reform or repeal of climate and energy policy measures.
The IEA has leveraged real-time data from the IEA Real-Time Electricity Tracker alongside granular electricity generation data included in the IEA World Energy Balances to develop real-time data for tracking CO2 emissions associated with the electricity grids with hourly and daily resolutions. Such data provides the opportunity to track emissions with a higher temporal resolution compared to monthly and yearly emission factors derived from statistics. For details corresponding to the underlying methodology, please refer to the documentation file.
Access to such timely emissions data can help shape effective policy measures to incentivise shifting demand to times when penetration of low emissions sources in the electricity mix is high. This flexibility can reduce the emissions footprint of electricity generation and is expected to be increasingly important as grids integrate larger shares of variable power generation. Additionally, the disclosure requirements of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by the private sector have increased significantly and will continue to do so in the coming years. Access to high quality real-time grid intensity factors for tracking the footprint corresponding to electricity consumption may better incentivise load management and procurement strategies that could support decarbonisation of grids.
Periodical activities, seasonal patterns and disruptions affect CO2 emissions of electricity grids
Real-time CO2 intensity data means the impact of disruptions such as extreme weather events on electricity grids can be monitored. This information may provide valuable insight for strengthening the resilience and flexibility of power generation systems.
As an example, earlier this year, Colombia's hydro reservoirs hit a record low of 30% in April. As hydro availability dwindled, CO2 intensity rose steadily, surpassing 300 gCO2/kWh by the end of the month. However, due to heavy rainfall, the grid intensity quickly dropped back to below 100 gCO2/kWh in early May.
