With Ukrainian energy infrastructure under huge strain, IEA report outlines immediate steps for country and its partners to tackle vulnerabilities as temperatures drop
A step change in the intensity of Russia's attacks on Ukraine's energy sector has created serious risks as winter approaches - requiring swift action and additional support to ensure Ukrainian citizens have reliable access to power and heating through the coming months, according to a new report from the IEA.
The report, Ukraine's Energy Security and the Coming Winter, proposes 10 immediate actions that Ukraine and its partners can take to address the country's urgent energy security vulnerabilities and bolster longer-term energy resilience.
Ukraine's energy system has endured two successive winters since Russia's invasion in February 2022. But following a significant escalation of attacks since spring 2024 on power plants, heat plants, transmission networks and more, the country's energy infrastructure is under huge strain.
Even before an unprecedented wave of attacks in late August, more than two-thirds of Ukraine's pre-war power generation capacity was not available because it was destroyed, damaged or under occupation. Over the summer, rolling blackouts and other unscheduled interruptions to supply became the norm, with knock-on effects for all aspects of daily life, including water supplies.
Yet the situation could become even more dire as the days get shorter and colder. According to the report, a yawning gap between available electricity supply and peak demand risks emerging - bringing the threat of even more severe disruptions to hospitals, schools and other key institutions in the depths of winter. Heat supply to Ukraine's major cities is also at risk, and lower-than-average temperatures could strain domestic supplies of natural gas.
The report sets out 10 key energy measures that Ukraine and its international partners can take to tackle these risks while reducing future vulnerabilities. These include bolstering the physical and cyber security of critical energy infrastructure, expediting the delivery of equipment and spare parts for repairs, accelerating the decentralisation of power supply, investing in energy efficiency, and increasing the capacity to import electricity and gas from the European Union.
The report stresses that while the recommended actions are immediate, they should, where possible, be designed in ways that lay the groundwork for a modern, resilient and sustainable energy system that is integrated with Europe - in line with the long-term energy goals Ukraine has set out.
"The situation in Ukraine is one of the most pressing energy security issues in the world today. Ukraine's energy system has made it through the past two winters thanks to the resilience, courage and ingenuity of its people and strong solidarity from its international partners. But this winter will be, by far, its sternest test yet," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, who is launching the report today at a joint press conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels. "The actions laid out in this report, if implemented swiftly and effectively, could make a major difference. And they would put Ukraine on a path towards a sturdier and more sustainable energy future - the one its people deserve."
The coming winter could also be destabilising for Moldova, according to the report. While not subject to the same physical risks from Russian shelling, the country gets most of its electricity from a plant in the breakaway, Russia-backed region of Transnistria. Gas supply to that plant is set to move to a new footing and a new route once transit arrangements through Ukraine expire in January. The report calls for a coordinated approach to ensure the energy security of both countries given their strong energy links.
Ukraine joined the IEA Family as an Association country in 2022, following many years of cooperation on energy issues. Recent collaboration has focused on common priorities such as energy system reconstruction, energy security and accelerating clean energy transitions - expanding on activities carried out via the EU4Energy Programme.
In the past 18 months, the IEA has hosted five workshops with energy system stakeholders in Ukraine, including three in the capital, Kyiv. These events have covered topics such as building power sector resilience, deploying decentralised energy resources and energy modelling.
Ukraine's Energy Security and the Coming Winter: Explore report
