A new study from Clean Air Task Force (CATF) provides a comprehensive, scenario-based comparison of how Nigeria's electricity system could reach net-zero emissions by 2050, 2060, or 2070 - and shows that long-term costs are lowest when the country deploys a diverse suite of low-carbon technologies. The paper, Technology Options and Optimal Pathways to a Net-Zero Electricity System in Nigeria Across Different Timelines, provides the country's most detailed comparison of net-zero options to date and breaks down what each timeline means for system reliability, investment needs, and the feasibility of firm low-carbon power.
"Our findings clearly show that the most affordable net-zero electricity system for Nigeria is one where all low-carbon technologies can compete, including nuclear and natural gas with CCS," said Michael Dioha, Senior Energy Researcher at CATF and lead author. "Solar power will remain essential under every scenario - but the most affordable, reliable, and resilient electricity system is one where there is technological diversity. Excluding nuclear or gas with CCS forces Nigeria to overbuild solar and batteries, increasing total installed capacity by around 50% and driving up long-term costs."
The analysis finds that across all net-zero scenarios - some excluding clean firm options - solar PV (both utility-scale and off-grid) contributes 37-55% of electricity by mid-century. When allowed, firm, distpatchable low-carbon technologies such as nuclear supplies up to 41% of generation by 2050, reducing the need for large-scale overbuild of renewables and storage.
All net-zero timelines require roughly US$7-10 billion in average annual investment, and earlier transitions are not necessarily more expensive because the current baseline is already costly due to widespread reliance on diesel and gasoline backup generation. Over the long term, net-zero pathways outperform business-as-usual by reducing fossil fuel dependence and exposure to fuel price volatility.
The study also examines a high-electricity demand scenario aligned with Nigeria Agenda 2050, in which rapid economic growth drives electricity demand nearly sixfold by mid-century. Under this pathway, average annual investment requirements rise from from US$9.3 billion to US$35.8 billion, total system costs nearly triple, and installed capacity requirements rise sharply due to increased deployment of nuclear, solar, and battery storage systems.
"This work shows that achieving reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity in Nigeria requires planning, sequencing, and a realistic set of technological options," said Lily Odarno, Director of CATF's Africa Program. "Solar alone cannot shoulder the entire system. Nigeria needs firm, dispatchable low-carbon power to support industrialization, create jobs, and build a modern, dependenable grid."
Key findings include:
- Solar is indispensable but must be complemented by firm low-carbon capacity such as nuclear, gas-CCS, hydro, and biomass.
- Technology diversity lowers costs: allowing all technologies to compete produces the most affordable net-zero configuration.
- Restricting nuclear or gas-CCS increases system size by 50% and raises long-term investment needs.
- Nigeria Agenda 2050 nearly triples system cost, driven by rapid demand growth and the need for major expansion of nuclear, solar, and battery storage.
- Battery storage becomes increasingly critical as solar expands, especially under restricted-technology pathways.
- Net-zero pathways are cheaper than business-as-usual in the long run, even with higher upfront investment.
- Timeline differences (2050, 2060, 2070) does not drastically change long-term cost.
The findings provide a clear evidence base to inform Nigeria's Energy Transition Plan, ongoing power-sector reforms, and future climate finance negotiations. They highlight that meeting Nigeria's development goals - from industrial expansion to job creation to energy security - will require a pragmatic embrace of a diverse low-carbon technology mix.
Read the executive summary here and the full paper here.
Press Contact
Natalie Volk, Communications Manager, nvolk@catf.us, +1 703-785-9580
About Clean Air Task Force
Clean Air Task Force (CATF) is a global nonprofit organization working to safeguard against the worst impacts of climate change by catalyzing the rapid development and deployment of low-carbon energy and other climate-protecting technologies. With 30 years of internationally recognized expertise on climate policy and a fierce commitment to exploring all potential solutions, CATF is a pragmatic, non-ideological advocacy group with the bold ideas needed to address climate change. CATF has offices in Boston, Washington D.C., and Brussels, with staff working virtually around the world. Visit catf.us and follow @cleanaircatf.
