The report proposes a comprehensive, multi-sectoral "Green Development Scenario", as a more ambitious yet feasible alternative to the governmental decarbonisation plans
South Africa's efforts to scale down its intensive reliance on carbon are a starting point, but more needs to be done. This is the main takeaway of the last study Possible Decarbonisation Roadmap for South Africa, developed by RES4Africa Foundation in collaboration with AFRY. The analysis, presented today (Dec 7) during an online event which saw the participation of AFRY, NERSA, South Africa's Presidential Climate Commission, European Commission DG for climate action, IEA, Nedbank, and Enel Green Power, proposes a "Green Development Scenario" as more ambitious and achievable roadmap aiming at supporting the country's efforts towards economy-wide decarbonisation.
Despite a recognisable effort in promoting GHG emissions, South Africa is still one of the most carbon-intensive economies worldwide, as well as the only G20 country with a rising power carbon intensity: more than 50% of the country's emissions come from power generation, which is widely dominated by coal reliance. In order to contrast this trend, the government undertook a series of decarbonisation initiatives, keeping national GHG emissions within a range from 398 - 614 Mt CO2-eq by 2030, reducing coal dependence in electricity generation (to 55% in 2030 and 11% in 2050), and progressively decommissioning coal-fired power plants (roughly 11MW by 2030 and 35MW by 2050).
However, according to the findings of RES4Africa's study, this agenda might be insufficient, since it doesn't seem to be ambitious enough to meet the internationally-agreed climate targets (Paris, COP26), synthesised in the goal of maintaining the average global temperature rise to below 1.5 °C.
The "Green Development Scenario" foresees a 32% reduction of GHG emissions by 2030, increasing to a 73% reduction by 2050 through targeted interventions consisting of financial and non-financial policy measures. Building blocks for such a shift are a progressive penetration of renewables within the energy generation segment, and greater energy efficiency across the electricity value chain. Additionally, the report calls for an extension of a decarbonisation agenda to other sectors of the South African economy (agriculture, industry, real estate, public and private transport, urban planning). Finally, the implementation of new energy sources should be explored: hydrogen is a key example, as it could further reduce GHG emissions, especially for those hard-to-abate industrial sectors (I.e: heavy trucks segments, steel and glass processing, etc.).
RES4Africa Foundation (Renewable Energy Solutions for Africa) envisions the sustainable transformation of Africa's electricity systems to ensure reliable and affordable electricity access for all, enabling the continent to achieve its full, resilient, inclusive and sustainable development. The Foundation's mission is to create favourable conditions for scaling up investments in clean energy technologies to accelerate the continent's just energy transition and transformation. See more: www.res4africa.org
