Cooling is set to account for 13% of global electricity demand by 2035 as rising incomes, expanding floor space and higher temperatures drive rapid growth in air-conditioning, according to new analysis from DNV's Energy Transition Outlook programme. The findings, published ahead of COP31, highlight the growing challenge of expanding access to cooling while simultaneously decarbonizing the electricity system.
DNV's analysis, Burning to cool: COP31 has a cooling challenge, finds that electricity demand for cooling will increase by more than 60% over the next decade. By 2035, cooling demand will be twice the electricity demand associated with either electric vehicle charging or artificial intelligence data centres.
The findings come as cooling features in discussions around COP31, including the Third Annual Cooling Ministerial on 16 November. The Global Cooling Pledge, launched at COP28 in 2023, calls for cooling-related emissions to fall by at least 68% from 2022 levels by 2050 while expanding access to sustainable cooling. DNV's research forecasts that CO emissions from electricity used for space cooling will fall by only around 40% from 2022 levels towards mid-century. While the figures have different emissions boundaries - the Global Cooling Pledge also includes HFCs - DNV's forecast highlights the scale of the challenge as rapidly rising cooling demand offsets some of the benefits of grid decarbonization.
Fastest growth in emerging economies
DNV forecasts that global cooling electricity demand, currently around 2,800 TWh, will increase by 80% by 2040, compared with growth of 55% over the previous 15 years.
Growth is heavily concentrated in emerging economies. Cooling demand is forecast to triple in the Indian Subcontinent and quadruple in South East Asia over the next 15 years. North American demand, by contrast, increases by just over 5%, with data centre cooling accounting for much of the additional load.
DNV's analysis also shows contrasting emissions trajectories. In North America, comparatively limited demand growth and electricity decarbonization drive cooling-related emissions down. In South East Asia, rapidly expanding access to air-conditioning initially increases emissions despite a greener electricity mix, before emissions decline as power generation decarbonizes further.
Efficiency will be critical
DNV's analysis finds rising incomes to be the largest driver of additional cooling-energy demand between 2025 and 2040, while improvements in cooling equipment and controls offset only a small proportion of the increase.
The Global Cooling Pledge includes an ambition to increase the global average efficiency of new air conditioners by 50% by 2030 compared with a 2022 installed baseline. DNV's analysis indicates that translating such ambitions into equipment standards and improving access to efficient cooling will be important, particularly in countries experiencing the fastest demand growth
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About the Energy Transition Outlook
The Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) is DNV's flagship independent forecast of the global energy system. It provides our view of how energy production, demand, and emissions will evolve through to 2060 globally and in ten world regions. Unlike scenario-based approaches, the ETO model delivers one most-likely trajectory grounded in real-world data, inertia, and feedback loops, with input from over 150 DNV experts and external contributors. Now in its tenth edition, it has become a trusted reference for business leaders, policymakers, investors, and industry stakeholders, its insights reaching over 60,000 readers each year.
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Contact: International media manager, Peter Lovegrove, peter.lovegrove@dnv.com, +47 40904294
