2025 was the year when the risks of highly concentrated critical minerals supply chains materialised at scale
The IEA has long warned of the potential security risks associated with the high concentration of critical mineral supply chains. In 2025, these risks became a reality, marking a major turning point for global economic security. The rare earths export controls announced by China in October 2025 posed major national and economic security risks across the world, with potentially severe impacts for a range of strategic sectors including energy, automotive, defence, aerospace, AI and semiconductors. Earlier export controls introduced in April had already resulted in some automotive factories around the world being forced to cut utilisation rates or even temporarily shut down.
Beyond rare earths, export controls have also been imposed on a range of strategic minerals including gallium, germanium, graphite and tungsten, which play a crucial role in strategic applications such as semiconductors, batteries, aerospace and defence. The Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 highlighted that China is the leading refiner for 19 out of the 20 strategic minerals closely tracked by the IEA, with an average market share of around 70%. Moreover, over half of these minerals are already subject to some form of export controls. These developments underscore that concentration risks in mineral supply chains are no longer a theoretical concern but pose tangible and growing threats to countries' economic and national security. Moreover, IEA analysis underlines that the market share of the largest suppliers of key critical minerals, particularly for refining, has been increasing in recent years.
