U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
New Interagency Study Finds Further Expansion of Renewable Energy Production on Federal Lands Could Power Millions More American Homes by 2035

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in coordination with the U.S. Departments of the Interior, Agriculture, and Defense, today (Jan 14) released a study

showing that there is significant potential for further expanding renewable energy production on federal lands. The most comprehensive study of its kind finds that onshore federal lands in the contiguous United States could technically support over 7,700 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity. Researchers found that, in central scenarios that prioritize for meeting America's growing energy demand while balancing other needs such as natural resource protection, between 51 to 84 GW of renewable energy could be deployed on federal lands by 2035, requiring only around half of one percent of total federal land area in the contiguous U.S. That level of deployment by 2035, which could entail authorizing such projects by around 2030, is enough to provide up to about 10% of the reliable, renewable energy needed to reach net-zero emissions in the electricity sector. The Department of the Interior has already permitted more than 30 GW of clean energy projects on federal lands, surpassing its Congressionally authorized 25 GW goal well ahead of the 2025 target date enough clean energy to power more than 15 million homes across the country.  

With domestic energy demand expected to rise, including to support new homes and growing American industries such as advanced manufacturing and data centers, this new analysis shows major opportunities to build on recent progress in deploying renewable energy resources on federal land to provide a significant source of additional energy capacity in the years ahead.  

"DOE is a data-driven agency and the data shows that the nation's growing energy demand can be met with cleaner, cheaper, more resilient power," said U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm. "Today's report underscores how the federal government can be a leader in building out American-made clean energy on federal lands, ensuring a secure and sustainable domestic energy supply."     

"We are pleased to be a partner in this analysis and contribute to growing a sustainable clean energy economy while protecting the natural and cultural resources on our public lands," said Department of the Interior's Bureau of Land Management Principal Deputy Director Nada Wolff Culver. "By working together, we can ensure the responsible development of clean energy across our lands that will help create good paying jobs, lower energy costs for consumers, and support our goal of 100% clean electricity by 2035." 

To understand future renewable energy deployment on federal lands, researchers created seven scenarios with a wide range of possibilities. For each scenario, they used a power sector model to determine the most cost-effective way to deploy new generation, storage, and transmission across the country to meet future energy demand. Those results were then used to produce renewable energy deployment estimates on federal lands.   

To ensure realistic assumptions in their model, NREL researchers sought expertise from federal agencies and land administrators in DOE, the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the U.S. Forest Service, and the U.S. Department of Defense each of which have varying priorities for managing their lands to achieve agency missions. NREL's modeling aligns with recent federal progress on supporting efficient and environmentally responsible renewable energy planning and permitting, including the Bureau of Land Management's updated Western Solar Plan.  

Key findings of the study include: 

• In total, there is technical potential for 5,750 GW of utility-scale photovoltaics (solar), 875 GW of land-based wind, 130 GW of hydrothermal, and 975 GW of enhanced geothermal generation on federal lands. 

• Even with more stringent siting constraints, such as land use for conservation, livestock grazing, recreation, military use, and more, the technical potential on federal lands remains 1,750 GW for utility-scale solar and 70 GW for land-based wind. 

• Deployment of geothermal capacity is strongly tied to availability and future cost reductions for enhanced geothermal. Success of enhanced geothermal results in up to 10 GW deployed on federal lands by 2035 and 36 GW by 2050, whereas without enhanced geothermal technologies, less than about 5 GW would be deployed.  

• Out of seven deployment scenarios explored in the study, the three central scenarios find that 51-84 GW of renewable energy would be deployed on federal lands by 2035, followed by a scenario that favors utility-scale solar and storage, in which deployment goes up to 81-128 GW.  However, in scenarios where siting on non-federal lands is more constrained, estimated deployment on federal lands increases to 231-270 GW by 2035. 

• Of all federal land administrators, the Bureau of Land Management has the highest renewable energy technical potential, followed by the U.S. Forest Service and the Department of Defense. The Department of Energy, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and other federal land administrators have relatively modest renewable energy technical potential.  

• Only 4% (8.9 GW) of currently operating renewable energy generation in the contiguous United States is located on federal lands, and the scenarios find that up to 12.5% of total 2035 renewable energy capacity could be deployed on federal lands. The Department of the Interior's recent prioritization of clean energy permitting could help facilitate this increased deployment. For comparison, 12% of oil production and 11% of natural gas production are located on federal lands. 

• Specific sites with high renewable energy potential were identified for Bureau of Land Management field offices, U.S. Forest Service National Forests and Grasslands, and Department of Defense military installations, ranges and training areas. 

Federal lands serve many public needs, and any decision about their use involves trade-offs. Collaboration is crucial to support agencies in navigating competing interests while integrating renewable energy development responsibly. Future analysis can assess the viability of specific areas or sites and should be updated as land administrators' priorities evolve. 

Learn more and read the full study on NREL's website.