The estimate is based on Statistics Finland's verified figures for previous years and Fingrid's real-time CO2 emission estimate. Fingrid estimates that the emission intensity will continue to decline in the coming years. The low emission intensity is one of the most adaptable criteria for renewable fuel production.
Finland has lucrative opportunities for investments that use green electricity, as significant amounts of new renewable generation are being built and the emissions from power generation, consisting of carbon dioxide (CO2), are on a strong downward trend.
Fingrid receives a lot of enquiries from new connection applicants who are planning investments in Finland. They are interested in the development of emission intensity and Fingrid's calculation principles. We have comprehensively addressed our real-time CO2-estimate methodology on our website.
Statistics Finland also makes a similar assessment at the annual level. We work actively together to develop the calculation methods. This blog provides answers to the development outlook of the emission intensity of power generation and how the theme is an essential part of the regulation of renewable fuels.
The role of emissions in renewable fuel regulation
Renewable fuels can be roughly divided into biofuels and Renewable Fuel of Non-Biological Origin (RFNBO).
From the point of view of the power system, the more relevant fuel type is RFNBO, as its different forms require a lot of electricity to be generated.
As less than 90% of Finland's power system's supply comes from renewable sources, renewable electricity purchased from the price area must correspond to the amount of fuel production on a monthly basis in the 2020s and on an hourly basis from 2030 onwards for RFNBO production. When this timing condition is met, there are three alternative procedures for producing RFNBO products:
- Direct connection between renewable electricity generation and RFNBO production or location on the same plant area without the use of emission-intensive grid electricity (see procedure c) for fuel production,
- Additionality condition, i.e., only electricity from renewable power plants, that have started electricity production within 36 months, is purchased for RFNBO production, or
- Renewable electricity can be transferred through external grids, if the emission intensity of electricity in the price area has been verified to be below the threshold of 18 gCO2eq/MJ (= 65 gCO2eq/kWh)
Each of these procedures become more feasible as renewable power generation investments continue in Finland. Of these, the procedure based on the emission intensity of electricity in the price area allows the freest conditions for business, as it does not bind RFNBO production to a single electricity generation plant or power procurement to a limited group of new power plants. In practice, renewable electricity can be purchased freely from Finland. Once the annual emission intensity has declined below the threshold in one calendar year, for the subsequent five years the emission intensity is considered to remain below the threshold by default.
Significant decline in carbon dioxide emissions continues
For electricity, emission intensity is generally described using carbon dioxide emission factors. As can be seen in the figure below, CO2 emission factors have decreased considerably and, according to Fingrid's forecast*, the decline will also continue in the future. To the great delight of many, Fingrid estimated that the emission intensity required in RFNBO regulation will be clearly below the threshold in 2023.
