HIGHLIGHTS
- SOLAR IS THE LARGEST SOURCE OF NEW GENERATING CAPACITY FOR THE SIXTH MONTH IN A ROW
- PROVIDED 84% OF CAPACITY ADDITIONS IN FEBRUARY
- OVER THE PAST THREE YEARS, NEW SOLAR AND WIND SUBSTANTIALLY EXCEEDED FERC FORECASTS
A review by the SUN DAY Campaign of data recently-released by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) reveals that for the sixth month in a row, solar provided more new U.S. electrical generating capacity than any other energy source. In addition, solar as well as wind have grown significantly faster than earlier FERC forecasts.
Solar was 83.6% of new capacity in February:
In its latest monthly "Energy Infrastructure Update" report (with data through February 29, 2024), FERC says 29 "units" of solar provided 1,043 megawatts (MW) of new domestic generating capacity or 83.64% of the total. Most of the balance (16.04%) was provided by the 200-MW Horizon Hill Wind Project in Logan County, Oklahoma. Natural gas generating capacity increased by only 4-MW.
For the first two months of this year, solar accounted for 78.50% (or 3,581-MW) of new generating capacity brought on-line while wind contributed another 20.34% (928-MW). Natural gas trailed with only 48-MW (1.05%) accompanied by 2-MW of oil and 3-MW of "other."
Solar has now been the largest source of new generating capacity for six months straight: September 2023 - February 2024. For five of those six months, wind took second place with natural gas winning the #2 slot just once.
Solar is now in fourth place for share of U.S. generating capacity:
The latest capacity additions have brought solar's share of total available installed utility-scale (i.e., >1-MW) generating capacity up to 8.21%, surpassing that of hydropower (7.85%). Wind is currently at 11.77%. With the inclusion of biomass (1.15%) and geothermal (0.32%), renewables now claim a 29.30% share of total U.S. utility-scale generating capacity.
For perspective, just a year ago, solar's share was 6.63% while wind and hydropower were 11.48% and 8.00% respectively. The mix of all renewables totaled 27.63%. [1]
Installed utility-scale solar has now moved into fourth place - behind natural gas (43.76%), coal (15.99%) and wind - for its share of generating capacity after having recently surpassed that of nuclear power (8.00%). [2]
Solar is likely to surpass the individual capacities of wind and coal within three years:
FERC reports that "high probability" additions of solar between March 2024 and February 2027 total 87,749-MW - an amount more than triple the forecast net "high probability" additions for wind (23,874-MW), the second fastest growing resource.
FERC also foresees growth for hydropower (575-MW), geothermal (400-MW), and biomass (25-MW). The new 1,100-MW Vogtle-4 reactor in Georgia will increase nuclear capacity modestly while coal, natural gas, and oil are projected to contract by 21,487-MW, 3,131-MW, and 2,059-MW respectively.
If just FERC's current "high probability" additions materialize, by March 1, 2027, solar will account for almost one-seventh (14.06%) of the nation's installed utility-scale generating capacity. That would be greater than either coal (13.42%) or wind (12.76%) and substantially more than either nuclear power (7.57%) or hydropower (7.40%).
The mix of all renewables would account for 35.63% of total available installed utility-scale generating capacity - rapidly approaching that of natural gas (40.77%) - with solar and wind constituting more than three-quarters of the installed renewable energy capacity.
FERC's "high probability" numbers for utility-scale solar as well as wind will almost certainly prove to be too conservative:
In its December 2020 "Infrastructure" report, FERC projected that between January 2021 and December 2023, net "high probability" solar additions would total 36,691-MW while those for wind would reach 21,938-MW. In reality, solar additions during that three-year period totaled 45,908-MW - i.e., more than a quarter (25.12%) higher while actual wind capacity additions reached 29,378-MW or over a third greater (33.91%) than FERC's forecast. [3]
Moreover, FERC reports that there may actually be as much as 216,037-MW of net new solar additions in the current three-year pipeline in addition to 75,968-MW of new wind and 7,726-MW of new hydropower.
In addition, it should be noted that inasmuch as FERC only reports data for utility-scale facilities, its data do not reflect the capacity of distributed renewables, notably rooftop solar PV. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), small-scale solar PV is estimated to account for nearly a third of the nation's electrical generation by solar. [4]
This suggests that the total of distributed and utility-scale solar capacity combined is significantly more than the 8.21% FERC reported as solar's share of total capacity at the end of February. It is perhaps closer to 12.0% and may be on track to approach or exceed 20.0% within three years.
That, in turn, could also bring the generating capacity provided by the mix of all renewables close to - or even surpass - that of natural gas within three years.
"Without question, solar is on a roll as it surpasses FERC's expectations and leads all other energy sources in providing new generating capacity," noted the SUN DAY Campaign's executive director Ken Bossong. "Including distributed solar, the mix of all renewables is poised to surpass natural gas capacity within the next few years."
Source:
FERC's 6-page "Energy Infrastructure Update for February 2024" was released on April 8, 2024, and can be found at: https://cms.ferc.gov/media/energy-infrastructure-update-january-2024-0.
For the information cited in this update, see the tables entitled "New Generation In-Service (New Build and Expansion)," "Total Available Installed Generating Capacity," and "Generation Capacity Additions and Retirements."
Notes:
[1] For capacity data as of February 28, 2023, see FERC's "Energy Infrastructure Update for February 2023" at: https://cms.ferc.gov/media/energy-infrastructure-update-february-2023
[2] Generating capacity is not the same as actual generation. Fossil fuels and nuclear power generally have higher "capacity factors" than do wind and solar. For example, EIA reports capacity factors in 2023 for nuclear power and natural gas were 93.1% and 58.8% respectively while those for wind and utility-scale solar were 33.5% and 23.3%. See: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=table_6_07_a
and
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=table_6_07_b
[3] FERC's December 2020 "Infrastructure" report can be found at: https://cms.ferc.gov/media/energy-infrastructure-update-december-2020
See table entitled "Generation Capacity Additions and Retirements."
FERC's capacity addition data for calendar year 2021 can be found at: https://cms.ferc.gov/media/energy-infrastructure-update-december-2022
See table entitled "New Generation In-Service (New Build and Expansion"
FERC's capacity addition data for calendar years 2022 and 2023 can be found at: https://cms.ferc.gov/media/energy-infrastructure-update-december-2023
See table entitled "New Generation In-Service (New Build and Expansion"
[4] See Table ES1.B of EIA's "Electric Power Monthly" report issued on March 26, 2024 at: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=table_es1b
For January 2024, EIA reports "estimated total solar" to be 14,434 thousand megawatt-hours including 4,782 thousand megawatt-hours of "estimated small-scale solar photovoltaic" - i.e., 33.13%.
The SUN DAY Campaign is a non-profit research and educational organization founded in 1992 to support a rapid transition to 100% reliance on sustainable energy technologies as a cost-effective alternative to nuclear power and fossil fuels and as a solution to climate change. Follow on Twitter (or "X"): @SunDayCampaign
