SUN DAY CAMPAIGN
EIA Foresees 99% of Net New Generating Capacity in 2026 Coming from Renewables & Batteries as Renewables Provided 26% of U.S. Electricity in 2025 (YTD)

HIGHLIGHTS

• U.S. EIA PROJECTS SOLAR, WIND, AND BATTERIES TO PROVIDE 99% OF NET NEW CAPACITY OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS
• THROUGH NOVEMBER 2025, RENEWABLES WERE 26% OF U.S. GENERATION WITH WIND AT 10% AND SOLAR AT 9%
• DRIVEN BY 34% GROWTH IN SOLAR, RENEWABLE ELECTRICTY EXPANDED 8.7%

A review by the SUN DAY Campaign of data just released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reveals that virtually all net new generating capacity in 2026 is forecast to be provided by solar, wind, and batteries - significantly expanding on the strong growth they have already experienced through November 2025.

Solar electrical generation set new records in November and the first 11 months of 2025:

EIA's latest monthly "Electric Power Monthly" report (with data through November 30, 2025), once again confirms that solar is the fastest growing among the major sources of U.S. electricity.

In November alone, electrical generation by utility-scale solar (i.e., >1-megawatt (MW)) expanded by 33.9% compared to November 2024 while "estimated" small-scale (e.g., rooftop) solar PV increased by 11.0%. Combined, they grew by 27.5% and provided 7.2% of the nation's electrical output during the month, up from 5.9% a year ago. [1]

Moreover, utility-scale solar thermal and photovoltaic expanded by 34.5% while that from small-scale systems rose by 11.3% during the first 11 months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. The combination of utility-scale and small-scale solar increased by almost a third (28.1%) and produced a bit under 9.0% (utility-scale: 6.74%; small-scale: 2.13%) of total U.S. electrical generation for January-November - up from 7.1% a year earlier.

Wind continues to hold the lead among renewables:

Wind turbines across the U.S. produced more than a tenth (10.1%) of U.S. electricity in the first 11 months of 2025 - an increase of 1.2% compared to the same period in 2024. In November alone, wind-generated electricity was 2.0% greater than a year earlier.

Wind + solar are almost one-fifth of total U.S. electrical generation - a larger share than that provided by either coal or nuclear power:  

During the first 11 months of 2025, electrical generation by wind plus utility-scale and small-scale solar increased by 12.2% and provided almost a fifth (19.0%) of the U.S. total, up from 17.3% during the first 11 months of 2024.

Further, the combination of wind and solar provided 16.9% more electricity than did coal during the first 11 months of this year, and 10.1% more than the nation's nuclear power plants.

Electrical output YTD by the mix of all renewables was almost 26% of total U.S. generation:

The mix of all renewables (i.e., wind and solar plus hydropower, biomass and geothermal) produced 8.7% more electricity in January-November than they did a year ago and provided (25.7%) of total U.S. electricity production compared to 24.3% twelve months earlier. [2]

Renewables' share of electrical generation is now second to only that of natural gas whose electrical output actually dropped by 3.7% during the first 11 months of 2025.  

During the past year, solar and battery storage have dominated capacity additions, coupled with a strong showing by wind:

Between January 1 and November 30, 2025, utility-scale solar capacity grew by 22,237.2-MW while an additional 5,460.5-MW was provided by small-scale solar. EIA foresees continued strong solar growth, with even more utility-scale solar capacity - 37,156.6-MW - being added in the next twelve months.

Explosive growth was also experienced by battery storage, which grew by 49.4% since the beginning of the year and added 13,357.0-MW of new capacity. EIA also notes that planned battery capacity additions during the next 12 months total 21,502.2-MW - a further increase of 53%.

Wind has also made a strong showing since January 1, adding 4,234.2-MW, while planned capacity additions over the next year total 9,256.2-MW (on-shore) plus 1,515.0-MW (off-shore).

On the other hand, during the past 11 months, natural gas capacity increased by 4,152.2-MW and nuclear power added a mere 46.0-MW. Meanwhile, coal capacity plummeted by 4,141.1-MW and petroleum-based capacity fell by an additional 514.1MW.

Thus, since January 1 - roughly the beginning of the Trump Administration, renewable energy capacity, including battery storage, small-scale solar, hydropower, geothermal, and biomass ballooned by 45,198.1-MW while that of all fossil fuels and nuclear power combined actually declined by 519.2-MW. [3]

In 2026, almost all net new generating capacity is projected to come from renewables and battery storage:

EIA forecasts the trends seen in 2025 YTD to continue and accelerate during the coming 12-month period.

Utility-scale renewables plus battery storage are projected to increase by 69,579.1-MW (EIA does not provide a forecast for small-scale solar but, based on recent growth rates, the SUN DAY Campaign estimates it will provide an additional 6,000-MW or more). [4]

Meanwhile, natural gas capacity will have a net increase of only 3,960.7-MW, which will be almost completely offset by a drop of 3,387.0-MW in coal capacity. Petroleum and "other gases" will decrease by 10.4-MW. In addition, EIA does not project any new growth for nuclear power in the coming year.

Thus, in 2026, renewables and battery storage will account for 99.2% of net new capacity - even higher if one were to include small-scale solar.

Should that forecast materialize, by November 30, 2026, the mix of all renewables, including small-scale solar, would reach 508,699.7-MW - almost equal to that of natural gas (514,484.1-MW), accounting for over 36% of U.S. generating capacity - and that does not include the capacity provided by battery storage.

Moreover, the installed capacity of utility-scale and small-scale solar combined (247,534.5-MW) would surpass that of wind (167,102.7-MW). Solar capacity would also handily exceed that of coal (166,649.5-MW) and more than double that of nuclear power (98,437.2-MW) although the latter two sources would still have significantly higher capacity factors. [5]

"For more than a year now, members of the Trump Administration have sought to stop the growth of wind and solar and have failed," noted the SUN DAY Campaign's executive director Ken Bossong. "Perhaps it is time for them to finally recognize renewable energy's unstoppable growth and either get with the program or else just get out of the way."

Source:  

EIA released its latest "Electric Power Monthly" report on January 26, 2026. The full report can be found at: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly

For the data cited in this release, see:

Table ES1.A ("Total Electric Power Industry Summary Statistics, 2025 and 2024");

Table ES1.B ("Total Electric Power Industry Summary Statistics, Year-to-Date 2025 and 2024");

Table 1.1.A ("Net Generation from Renewable Sources");

Table 6.1 ("Electric Generating Summer Capacity Changes (MW), October 2025 to November 2025");

Table 6.1.A ("Estimated Net Summer Solar Photovoltaic Capacity from Utility and Small-Scale Facilities"); and

Table 6.07.C ("Usage Factors for Utility-Scale Storage Generators").

Notes:   

[1] In its "Electric Power Monthly" report, EIA refers to small-scale or distributed solar as "Estimated Small Scale Solar Photovoltaic." Unless otherwise indicated, all calculations presented in this release include electrical generation by small-scale solar which EIA estimates to have totaled 87,875-GWh in January-November 2025 and 5,988-GWh in November alone. Utility-scale solar totaled 278,649-GWh for the first 11 months of 2025 and 18,532-GWH in just November.

[2] In January-November 2025, wind produced 417,412-GWh (10.1%) of total U.S. electrical generation while utility-scale and small-scale solar combined produced 366,523-GWh (8.9%), hydropower produced 223,035-GWh (5.4%), biomass produced 42,226-GWh (1.0%), and geothermal produced 14,313-GWh (>0.3%).

[3] EIA presents its capacity data as "summer capacity". See Table 6.1.

[4] In the 12 months ending November 30, 2025, small-scale solar accounted for 6,207.8-MW in new capacity additions. The SUN DAY Campaign is assuming that at least that much new small-scale solar capacity will be added in the next 12 months.

[5] During the first 11 months of 2025, EIA reports average monthly capacity factors of 48.4%, 58.4%, and 90.3% for coal, natural gas, and nuclear power respectively. By comparison, the average monthly capacity factors for wind and utility-scale PV are 33.7% and 25.4% respectively. See Tables 6.07.A and 6.07.B. Capacity factors for small-scale systems are usually lower - i.e., 10%-25%.

The SUN DAY Campaign is a non-profit research and educational organization founded in 1992 to support a rapid transition to 100% reliance on sustainable energy technologies as a cost-effective alternative to nuclear power and fossil fuels and as a solution to climate change.