In our first Future Energy Scenarios (FES) report as NESO, titled Future Energy Scenarios: Pathways to Net Zero 2025, we outline our expectation to see electricity demand increase from 290 Terawatt-hour (TWh) today (July 14) to as much as 785 TWh by 2050. This surge emphasises the need to accelerate the delivery of clean electricity, bioenergy, hydrogen, and energy storage solutions. A clean future in Great Britain also requires empowering homes and businesses to embrace low-carbon heating and adopt energy efficiency measures as part of everyday life.
'Pathways to Net Zero
FES 2025 presents three potential pathways to achieve net zero, each varying in its reliance on electrification, hydrogen, bioenergy, and consumer engagement. A common thread among these pathways is the significant reduction in annual emissions, potentially halving to around 200 megatonnes of CO2 a year within the next decade and further shrinking to 100 megatonnes of CO2 by 2040 with the right infrastructure in place.
The changing role of renewables
Britain's energy infrastructure undergoing a huge transformation, with wind and solar expected to increase grid capacity by up to 98% by 2050. Hydrogen will play a pivotal role, powering the network with between 98 and 325 TWh by the middle of the century. We also believe electric vehicles (EVs) will become the largest source of flexibility, providing 51 GW at peak, which is more than gas fired generation provides today.
How do we get to net zero?
Great Britain's net zero journey has four key waves. Having laid the initial foundation, the focus now shifts to the second wave: scaling up markets by 2030 to integrate new low-carbon technologies to deliver clean power. Success in this phase will pave the way for the third and fourth waves, leading to growth and completion by 2050.
Fintan Slye, Chief Executive of NESO:
"Over the past year, we have run the electricity system at 95% zero-carbon for the first time and phased out coal entirely from our energy system. But this isn't enough. We need to go further and faster, accelerating the roll-out of clean energy technologies is imperative to help deliver a clean and affordable energy system in the long-term.
"The choices made today will shape the success of each wave of Britain's transition. That means speeding up the adoption of energy efficiency measures, empowering households and businesses to make informed choices on things like demand flexibility, purchasing an electric car and switching to low-carbon heating."
Strategic measures for success
FES 2025 highlights several crucial measures to ensure a secure and affordable transition to net zero:
- Rapid development of infrastructure for electricity, gas, hydrogen, and carbon capture.
- Promotion of energy efficiency measures, innovative tariffs, and demand flexibility to save money for consumers.
- Incentives for the industrial sector to switch to low-carbon fuels and embrace carbon capture and storage (CCS).
Want to get involved?
On 15 July, you can watch a livestream of the launch event on YouTube from 10:30am.
