BY :Gergely Molnar, Energy Analyst - Natural Gas and Francesco Pavan, Energy Technology Analyst - Hydrogen
Northwest European countries have set ambitious low-emissions hydrogen targets
Low-emissions hydrogen1 can play a significant role in decarbonising the global energy system - and in Europe, policy makers are making it a key part of their strategies to meet energy and climate targets. In addition to their environmental benefits, efforts to produce low-emissions hydrogen can help reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports in the medium-term, supporting energy security.
The majority of countries in the region have set targets for the production of hydrogen via electrolysis. Since the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine, several Northwest European countries have doubled them, and others are considering increases, as highlighted by the Northwest European Hydrogen Monitor 2024, which the International Energy Agency (IEA) published last month. Altogether, countries in Northwest Europe - a region that here includes Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland and the United Kingdom - now have ambition to develop as much as 30 to 40 gigawatts (GW) of electrolyser capacity by 2030.
Based on the IEA's Hydrogen Production Projects Database, Northwest Europe's production of low-emission hydrogen and derivatives could top 7 million tonnes (Mt) per year by 2030 if all planned projects become commercially operational (taking into account expectations on efficiency and utilisation). This would cover approximately 2% of the region's total primary energy demand. However, less than 4% of low-emissions hydrogen production by 2030 comes from projects that have been committed, which means they are in operation, have reached a final investment decision (FID) or are under construction. This is in line with the share seen globally, though it needs to increase rapidly to meet the worldwide objectives that have been set, according to analysis in the IEA's Global Hydrogen Review 2023.
The North Sea is a potential powerhouse for low-emissions hydrogen
The North Sea has vast and untapped renewable energy and carbon storage potential, which could make it a powerhouse for low-emissions hydrogen production. Based on the IEA's Hydrogen Production Projects Database, projects linked to the North Sea2 could enable the production of close to 3 Mt per year of low-emissions hydrogen by 2030, accounting for almost 40% of Northwest Europe's potential output.
Approximately 25 GW of electrolyser capacity could be powered by offshore wind projects in the North Sea by 2030 if all announced projects for this period are realised. This could translate to approximately 1.2 Mt per year of low-emissions hydrogen production, taking into account assumptions on efficiency and utilisation factors. However, less than 2% of these projects in terms of low-emissions hydrogen have been committed, while 98% are undergoing feasibility studies or in early stages of planning. In addition to producing low-emissions hydrogen, electrolysers can also help integrate offshore renewables into broader power systems and limit generation curtailments.