World auto production set new records in 2012 and it looks like 2013 will likely see the same performance. According to the London-based IHS Automotive Consulting and Advisory Company, passenger-car production rose from 62.6 million in 2011 to 66.7 million in 2012 and 2013 saw a further increase to 68.3 million. Quite the increase considering that in 1950, world passenger car production was a mere nine million units.
Currently, just four countries - China, United States, Japan, and Germany - produced 53 percent of all light vehicles worldwide, and the top ten countries accounted for 76 percent. At 18.2 million vehicles, China produced almost as many as the next two countries - United States and Japan - combined. Automotive production in Germany and South Korea is declining slightly, while that of India, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, and Thailand is growing.
Light-Vehicle Production, Top Ten Countries and Rest of the World 2012 (in millions)
| China – 18.2 U.S. – 10.1 Japan – 9.4 Germany – 5.5 |
South Korea – 4.5 India – 3.8 Brazil – 3.2 Mexico – 2.9 |
Canada – 2.5 Thailand – 2.4 Rest of the World – 19.9 |
It's no secret that both the production and operation of automobiles are major contributors to air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Fuel efficiency standards are compelling manufacturers to produce cleaner running cars that emit less carbon dioxide per kilometre driven (CO2/km). Standards now on the drawing boards for light vehicles are intended to bring average per-vehicle emissions down to 95 grams (g) of CO2 in the European Union (EU) and 105 g in Japan by 2020. The U.S. is heading towards output of only 93 g by 2025 while South Korea is looking at 153 g per vehicle in 2015.1 India and China are contemplating limits for 2020 of 113 and 117 g respectively while Mexico is considering a limit of 173 g for 2016.2
At the time of this writing, according to the European Federation for Transport and Environment, individual automobile manufacturers in the EU are producing vehicles that emit from 126 to 161 g CO2/km. Light vehicles purchased in the U.S. averaged emissions of 232 g CO2/km in 2012. With these numbers, manufacturers need to make substantial progress to meet emission limits over the next decade or so.
Canada, where the transportation sector comprises some 25 percent of the country's emissions, isn't committing to actual numbers. The government claims to be working in concert with the U.S. with a view to establishing common North American standards for GHGs from vehicles. In 2014, final regulations limiting emissions from passenger vehicles and light trucks model years 2017 and beyond were released, building on the final regulations already in place for model years 2011 to 2016. As a result of the regulations, it is projected that the average GHG emissions form 2025 vehicles will be reduced by about 50 percent from those built in 2008.3
Alternative vehicle propulsion technologies are slowly becoming more prominent and more promising. They are driven by a desire to reduce dependence on petroleum and the need to cut down on air pollutants and GHG emissions. Included on the list of alternatives are:
- Hybrids that use both a conventional internal combustion engine and an electric motor
- A variety of electric vehicles (EVs), such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)
- Battery electric vehicles (BEVs)
- Fuel cell electric vehicles
The cumulative number of hybrids sold worldwide as of early 2013 was about 6.3 million. Between late 1997 and March 2013, Toyota - the leading hybrid manufacturer - sold nearly 5.13 million hybrids across the globe or 81 percent of the global total. Honda, which introduced its first hybrid model in 1999, surpassed the one million cumulative sales threshold in September 2012.
Japan is the world's largest market for hybrids followed by the U.S. and then the EU. Although their sales numbers are improving, EV numbers are still dwarfed by those for hybrids and are a minuscule 0.2 percent compared with the sales of conventional vehicles. Sales are almost evenly split between PHEVs and BEVs (about 55,000 and 57,000 respectively), while those of fuel cell EVs are very small by comparison. In the U.S., Canada, and the Netherlands, PHEVs dominate sales, while in Japan, China, France, Norway, Germany, and the United Kingdom, BEVs are more popular.4
By the end of 2012, the global EV fleet was estimated at just over 180,000 - a scant 0.02 percent of all passenger cars. Accountable EV fleets and charging stations are found in member countries of the Electric Vehicle Initiative (EVI). The largest EV fleets are currently found in the U.S., Japan, France, and China. Relative to population, however, the Netherlands, Japan, France, and Denmark have the largest numbers of EVs. Norway, which is not an EVI member, has the fifth largest EV fleet on the planet - some 10,000 units. This is by far the greatest density: 200 EVs per 100,000 inhabitants.
At the moment, the development of a network of charging stations is not in step in individual countries. The highest density of charging stations, relative to an existing EV fleet is in Denmark, followed by Sweden, Spain, Italy, China, Portugal, and India.5
The major drivers of EV development include government targets for future EV sales and fleets, public investment in R&D to develop improved batteries and other technologies, and stricter fuel efficiency requirements. The targets issued by governments around the world add up to annual sales of 7.2 million vehicles by 2020 and a fleet of 24 million units on the road the same year.6 The bulk of this figure is made up of the 15 member states of the EVI - the U.S., China, Japan, India, South Africa, and 10 EU countries - which aim to have annual sales of 5.9 million EVs by 2020 with a fleet of 20 million vehicles. EVI governments provided more than $8.7 billion in R&D funding for this effort between 2008 and 2012. On top of this, more than $3 billion was spent on consumer incentives and close to $1 billion on EV infrastructure.
Batteries are an integral component of alternative propulsion vehicles. The lithium-ion type is already heavily in use in consumer electronics and is growing in importance for the motor-vehicle sector. Challenges remain such as improving energy densities, reducing charging times, extending cycle life, and reducing costs. Globally, battery production - for portable devices, grid storage, and vehicles - accounts for 29 percent of total lithium use. Currently only 9 percent of lithium used in manufacturing batteries goes toward developing electric and hybrid car batteries. This isn't unusual because, at the moment, there is a definite slowdown in demand for PHEVs and EVs, which has negatively affected lithium battery makers. In fact, this downturn has caused insolvency for two major DOE grantees. This is not a good situation for some of the greatest climate change busting technology we have on our planet going forward.
1 International Council on Clean Transportation,
"Global Passenger Vehicle Standards Update. February 2013 Data Sheet," Washington, D.C
2 Ibid
3 "Reducing Greenhouse Gases." https://climatechange.gc.ca/default.asp?lang=En&n=4FE85A4C-1#X
4 Clean Energy Ministerial, Electric Vehicle Initiative and International Energy Agency,
Global EV Outlook. Understanding the Electric Vehicle Landscape to 2020. (April 2013)
5 Electric Drive Transportation Association (EDTA), "Electric Drive Sales,"
at www.electricdrive.org/ht/d/sp/i/20952/pid/20952
6 Ibid
